Thursday, July 15, 2010

Trading signals from Mars

System Traders Club members who have read our book or visited some of our lectures, will recognize this title, one of our favorite retail stories. In a recent marketing campaign, INO.com, selling a video of our presentation at the recent annual conference of the TAG, showed the headline of this story, and we got a lot of questions from interested, what's the matter here. The title was: "Find out how trader made a fortune in the markets with the help of a bottle of cola and signals from Mars.
Many of our members have never heard this story. This is a true story, which contains a very valuable lesson trading affect my trade for many years. We decided that the story could be an interesting topic for this newsletter. That history itself:
Once, in the late 60's, I was a young commodity broker in E. F. Hutton and Company. Our office was high-tech (at the time) and was considered a "headquarters" E. F. Hutton. In this office about thirty brokers and the same number of clients shared one very large room in which there were no individual offices. Do brokers have been refined and expensive tables, and customers enjoyed the space in front of the office with comfortable seating, where they could watch tape and monitor the status of trades.
Sitting at his desk in front of the courtroom, I could read his "The Wall Street Journal and monitor commodity markets, not looking at the board. Just listening to the rhythm and pace of mechanical clicks changing prices, I could easily tell when something happened is important because the rate of clicks markedly increased.
Right in front of my desk located a half-dozen leather sofas, standing face-to-decorated mahogany wall with indicators quotations. A flock of traders, mostly retired old regime, trade for real goods, such as grain and pork, loafing on the couch, preparing their charts and talking about life and markets. They usually come early in time to take a good place, and then spend the day, trading, obmenmvayas comments and giving each other unsolicited advice on any subject. Basically, they were very sociable, with stops for coffee and greeted each other by name. These traders have enjoyed the spirit of the market and consider our well-adapted room, as a private men's club. (Can you imagine that in those days women were not allowed to sell goods? My God, how times have changed!)
However, one of those "pique waistcoats" kept himself to himself, not wanting to become a member of the friendly and often violent society. He usually sat quietly alone, intently watching the price changes on the board, holding the ear old glass bottle of a Coca-Cola. The bottle had been drained for many years before, and now it just dangled a bent 12-inch tube is broken radio antenna, awkwardly sticking out of the bottle.
Keep in mind that in the sixties, no one has ever heard of cell phones, so that the appointment of the bottle was left for all this mystery. When the trader from time to time in the bottle said to him, turned every head, and traders in the vicinity tried to overhear the conversation. But traders said very quietly, and no one could overhear his conversations with the bottle.
Traders know that the old man with a bottle of Coke was my client and, eventually one of them came to me saying that they are very puzzled by this guy and his bottle and asked me to find out what was wrong. I did not know the aim or purpose bottles of cola, but I was just as curious as any other, and I promised to find out everything. The next time a customer came up to my desk, I quickly placed his order, and then politely asked him about a bottle of Coke.
With a straight face and without any embarrassment he explained to me that bottle of Coke was a device interplanetary communication, which gave him the aliens. He said that other people are very interested in our product markets, and often give him trading advice from their various observation posts on other planets. He said he had just received a message from Mars, and they bought soy, so he also bought a soy. Describing his unique trading methodology, he returned to his seat and resumed the quiet conversation with a bottle.
As soon as I spoke about the appointment of a bottle other traders, all attention was immediately focused on the trader with a bottle of a Coca-Cola and the soy market. Market soybean continued to go in the wrong direction, and the deal with Mars was eventually closed with a loss. Other traders are quick to make fun of the trader and start to tease him. The following transactions, however, proved to be a major win, and a trader with a bottle went from couch to couch, telling his story and pointing at the board bottleneck, boasting the profitability of his last messages from deep space. As he made money, now his recent critics had to endure his bragging about a bargain.
As time passes, and several winning and losing trades began to show a clear pattern of behavior. A trader with a bottle of a Coca-Cola mercilessly ridiculed for losing trades, but had the opportunity to take revenge and revenge in winnings. This trader may have been a little crazy, but he was not stupid. He soon learned that his only protection from ridicule - that as long as possible to hold on to winning the deal and quickly out of the losses. While he sat on his couch with a winning deal, no one could tell him that he was mad and let the cruel jokes about his messages from Mars. In fact, while he won, he was fast paced the room, and ridiculed the methods of other traders, who did not make such a large amount of money as he did. He showed the return on his account as solid evidence of the effectiveness of its methods and provide copies of Steytment as irrefutable proof that he received valuable advice from his extraterrestrial contacts. Who could argue when his advice to other planets, obviously, worked?
For me, as a young broker, this experience and close observation of a trader with a bottle from the Coke, which suddenly became successful, taught me my first valuable lesson about the importance of exits. I knew that the signals at the input had nothing to do with his success. Their level does not exceed any other trader. However, this crazy old trader who seemed able to consistently make money, while other traders, with plenty of "common sense" and a large number of real input methods have lost. I soon realized that this man became a successful trader, just trying to avoid ridicule. He knew that he was vulnerable because of the losing trades, so very quickly closed them.  His winnings became his shield against the ridicule of other traders, and he had a winner for much longer than before, as previously disclosed his unorthodox methods.
For many years thereafter, I met a great many allegations about opening a successful entry methods, which often had even less sense than the messages from the bottle. I've learned to just scan inputs of successful traders, but very carefully examine their exit strategy. I was very lucky that more than thirty years ago, I learned from a trader with a bottle of a Coca-Cola, that success in trade depends on our output, rather than inputs.
Good luck trading.

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