Since 1999, the price of gold almost constantly. Over the past two years it has gone up by 27%. Only in December 2002, the increase was 9%. But who can answer the question: what is the real price of gold, and what surprises can be expected from its motion in the near future? Analysts disagree on this.
Roaring Eighties If you make a small excursion into history and see what world events were accompanied by jumps in gold prices over the past twenty years, you get an interesting picture. Himself the dramatic upsurge daily gold price at auction in London on 21 January 1980, when the price of an ounce was $ 850, was preceded by entering the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 and the failure of Congress to ratify the SALT-2 treaty. Do not withdraw from and approved by the U.S. Congress act on monetary control and the deregulation of deposit takers. He expanded the powers of banks, as well as intensified competition in the securities market, which brought the banks more money than deposits. Throughout the 1980 year the U.S. was shaken by a wave of inflation. The situation in the gold market has stabilized until the end of January 1981 And after Iran released the American hostages taken during the Islamic Revolution, the gold price dropped and averaged $ 459.71 per ounce. Strangely enough, but "Black Monday" on Oct. 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones index in one day fell 508.32 points, has not led the U.S. into recession, the strength is comparable with the fall of 1929 Investors prefer not to seek refuge in gold, but in government bonds.
During 1988 the price of gold is constantly declining due to factors such as the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the fall in oil prices and the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The massive anti-Iraq coalition forces operation "Desert Storm" began Jan. 16, 1991 and lasted 43 days. Transience of hostilities did not allow strong enough to scare investors, and the media have not yet accumulated experience in the consolidated filing "a portrait of the enemy". On lowering the cost of gold in the early 90's. greatly influenced by such factors as the collapse of the Soviet Union. The average price of an ounce of gold on the London Stock Exchange in 1991 amounted to $ 362.19.
"Stagnant" 90th By the end of the 90's. Europe began to prepare for entering the single currency and central banks in Europe intensified the sale of gold reserves. So, in May 1999, the Bank of England announced its plans to sell more than half of its gold reserves: 415 out of 715 tons. This triggered panic and a collapse in prices during the summer. However, in September, the central banks of European countries have agreed to limit gold sales over the next five years to 400 tons per year. This again caused confusion in the market, as investors rushed to adjust their positions. On average in the last year of the second millennium gold price has not changed much, remaining at $ 278.76 per troy ounce. True, she fell in the summer to its lowest level for 20 years (below $ 250 per ounce). But in early October, the price briefly rose above $ 330. The Balkan crisis and the bombing of Yugoslavia, the NATO alliance have had little impact on the price of the precious metal amid fears that the IMF can conduct a large scale intervention of gold on world markets. At the turn of the millennium upward movement of gold began after the Sept. 11, 2001 Two weeks after that date the price has risen by 7% and reached $ 291.40 an ounce. Immediately before the start of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, analysts on Wall Street talking about that, "Golden Bear" became a "gold bull." As if to confirm this, 8 October, after reports of a military operation early Australians, thanks to its geographical position, first met the new trading day, and to raise the price of its mid-ounce to $ 293.35. Grown and gold shares. After feverish other world markets. In December gold was fixed at $ 295 per ounce, as if waiting for what will be the balance of power after the appearance of such a player, as the euro. In 2002, gold prices continued to rise slowly until the end of May. After the border conflict erupted between the nuclear powers - India and Pakistan. At the same time the U.S. president said that the operation of retaliation terrorists can not be limited to one in Afghanistan. After such a "cocktail" of news price of gold at the European trading platforms surged to its highest level over the past 27 months. Since 21 May the spot price was $ 316.50 per troy ounce. Since the beginning of the year and the end of May the gold price has grown by 14%.
Christmas Gifts The bellicose statements by George W. Bush and prime minister Tony Blair's military strikes on Iraq completely shattered the nerves of investors, and they rushed into the safe haven under the name of gold. The climax came on 19 December, when investors are expecting that the White House accused Iraq of violating UN resolutions on disarmament, raised the price of gold to $ 353.75 an ounce. It was the biggest price since March 1997.
The last gold in 2002 ended on a confident note, reached in morning trading in London, $ 347.75 per troy ounce, leaving analysts to wonder how far to continue its growth next year.
Without a doubt, the reduction in interest rates in the U.S., the gradual shift from gold producers hedge, geopolitical instability, the fall in market indexes of securities and the dollar's weakness provided the yellow metal in 2002, almost continuous growth. Do not expect prices in the near future will change its direction. However, keep in mind that 2004 will be decisive for George Bush because he had to go through the second presidential election. In Europe, the winter floods in 2003 may affect the inflationary picture of the member countries of the European Union.
Magazine "Sun" readers are already familiar with the manipulation of the bank JP Morgan Chase in the gold market. Suspicions about the scams on the gold market is given a new confirmation. In the second half of December 2002, just before the Christmas holidays, the largest U.S. company in retail sales of precious metals Blanchard and Co. put forward a claim for $ 2 billion against one of the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan Chase and the Canadian mining group Barrick Gold, accusing them of manipulating the price of gold.
The indictment states that the American Bank and Canadian miners for several years checked the growth of gold prices. They receive billions in profits on short selling, giving each other such favorable conditions that were not available to other market participants. Low price of gold also gave the second-largest gold miners Barrick Gold the opportunity to buy up other mining companies. Company Blanchard and Co. argues that if it were not for illegal activities of the bank and the Canadian miners, the gold price to the end of 2002 would have increased to $ 350 per troy ounce, and to at least $ 740-750.
Bank JP Morgan Chase declined to comment on the charge, and representatives of Barrick Gold shallows all the claims, stating that the company is widely practiced by hedging their products and often exposes for sale additional quantities of gold under the forward contracts before, as it is extracted. And in order to minimize the movement of prices, the company borrows the gold from banks, including at JP Morgan Chase, and then sells it on the spot market.
based on Gulf News, Independent News, The Guardian (UK)
Roaring Eighties If you make a small excursion into history and see what world events were accompanied by jumps in gold prices over the past twenty years, you get an interesting picture. Himself the dramatic upsurge daily gold price at auction in London on 21 January 1980, when the price of an ounce was $ 850, was preceded by entering the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 and the failure of Congress to ratify the SALT-2 treaty. Do not withdraw from and approved by the U.S. Congress act on monetary control and the deregulation of deposit takers. He expanded the powers of banks, as well as intensified competition in the securities market, which brought the banks more money than deposits. Throughout the 1980 year the U.S. was shaken by a wave of inflation. The situation in the gold market has stabilized until the end of January 1981 And after Iran released the American hostages taken during the Islamic Revolution, the gold price dropped and averaged $ 459.71 per ounce. Strangely enough, but "Black Monday" on Oct. 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones index in one day fell 508.32 points, has not led the U.S. into recession, the strength is comparable with the fall of 1929 Investors prefer not to seek refuge in gold, but in government bonds.
During 1988 the price of gold is constantly declining due to factors such as the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the fall in oil prices and the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The massive anti-Iraq coalition forces operation "Desert Storm" began Jan. 16, 1991 and lasted 43 days. Transience of hostilities did not allow strong enough to scare investors, and the media have not yet accumulated experience in the consolidated filing "a portrait of the enemy". On lowering the cost of gold in the early 90's. greatly influenced by such factors as the collapse of the Soviet Union. The average price of an ounce of gold on the London Stock Exchange in 1991 amounted to $ 362.19.
"Stagnant" 90th By the end of the 90's. Europe began to prepare for entering the single currency and central banks in Europe intensified the sale of gold reserves. So, in May 1999, the Bank of England announced its plans to sell more than half of its gold reserves: 415 out of 715 tons. This triggered panic and a collapse in prices during the summer. However, in September, the central banks of European countries have agreed to limit gold sales over the next five years to 400 tons per year. This again caused confusion in the market, as investors rushed to adjust their positions. On average in the last year of the second millennium gold price has not changed much, remaining at $ 278.76 per troy ounce. True, she fell in the summer to its lowest level for 20 years (below $ 250 per ounce). But in early October, the price briefly rose above $ 330. The Balkan crisis and the bombing of Yugoslavia, the NATO alliance have had little impact on the price of the precious metal amid fears that the IMF can conduct a large scale intervention of gold on world markets. At the turn of the millennium upward movement of gold began after the Sept. 11, 2001 Two weeks after that date the price has risen by 7% and reached $ 291.40 an ounce. Immediately before the start of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, analysts on Wall Street talking about that, "Golden Bear" became a "gold bull." As if to confirm this, 8 October, after reports of a military operation early Australians, thanks to its geographical position, first met the new trading day, and to raise the price of its mid-ounce to $ 293.35. Grown and gold shares. After feverish other world markets. In December gold was fixed at $ 295 per ounce, as if waiting for what will be the balance of power after the appearance of such a player, as the euro. In 2002, gold prices continued to rise slowly until the end of May. After the border conflict erupted between the nuclear powers - India and Pakistan. At the same time the U.S. president said that the operation of retaliation terrorists can not be limited to one in Afghanistan. After such a "cocktail" of news price of gold at the European trading platforms surged to its highest level over the past 27 months. Since 21 May the spot price was $ 316.50 per troy ounce. Since the beginning of the year and the end of May the gold price has grown by 14%.
Christmas Gifts The bellicose statements by George W. Bush and prime minister Tony Blair's military strikes on Iraq completely shattered the nerves of investors, and they rushed into the safe haven under the name of gold. The climax came on 19 December, when investors are expecting that the White House accused Iraq of violating UN resolutions on disarmament, raised the price of gold to $ 353.75 an ounce. It was the biggest price since March 1997.
The last gold in 2002 ended on a confident note, reached in morning trading in London, $ 347.75 per troy ounce, leaving analysts to wonder how far to continue its growth next year.
Without a doubt, the reduction in interest rates in the U.S., the gradual shift from gold producers hedge, geopolitical instability, the fall in market indexes of securities and the dollar's weakness provided the yellow metal in 2002, almost continuous growth. Do not expect prices in the near future will change its direction. However, keep in mind that 2004 will be decisive for George Bush because he had to go through the second presidential election. In Europe, the winter floods in 2003 may affect the inflationary picture of the member countries of the European Union.
Magazine "Sun" readers are already familiar with the manipulation of the bank JP Morgan Chase in the gold market. Suspicions about the scams on the gold market is given a new confirmation. In the second half of December 2002, just before the Christmas holidays, the largest U.S. company in retail sales of precious metals Blanchard and Co. put forward a claim for $ 2 billion against one of the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan Chase and the Canadian mining group Barrick Gold, accusing them of manipulating the price of gold.
The indictment states that the American Bank and Canadian miners for several years checked the growth of gold prices. They receive billions in profits on short selling, giving each other such favorable conditions that were not available to other market participants. Low price of gold also gave the second-largest gold miners Barrick Gold the opportunity to buy up other mining companies. Company Blanchard and Co. argues that if it were not for illegal activities of the bank and the Canadian miners, the gold price to the end of 2002 would have increased to $ 350 per troy ounce, and to at least $ 740-750.
Bank JP Morgan Chase declined to comment on the charge, and representatives of Barrick Gold shallows all the claims, stating that the company is widely practiced by hedging their products and often exposes for sale additional quantities of gold under the forward contracts before, as it is extracted. And in order to minimize the movement of prices, the company borrows the gold from banks, including at JP Morgan Chase, and then sells it on the spot market.
based on Gulf News, Independent News, The Guardian (UK)
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