Thursday, July 15, 2010

How does the oil market?

How to sell oil?

Crude oil - the most sold raw materials in the world. The largest stock exchange in which contracts for the supply of oil - London, New York and Singapore. However, contracts for the supply of petroleum products are traded worldwide.

The world's oil is not uniform in quality and, consequently, price. Prices depend on the density of paraffin and various additives, admixture of oil. The standard for oil prices is a class "Brent", similar in composition to that produced in the North Sea, and contracts for the supply of which are on the London commodities exchange. That is the price of this sort usually indicate the media.

Most of this cost - the cost of the contract for the supply of oil "Brent" in the next month. At the conclusion of the contract - the futures - the buyer is obliged to pay and accept the delivered goods and the seller - to put it in a pre-specified location.

Futures contracts are concluded on the relevant stock exchanges and are paid daily, based on current market prices. Minimum contract size - 1,000 barrels.

Where is that how much it costs?

With that sort of "Brent" - a kind of "zero mark" for the market (especially in Europe), in the world, there are other benchmarks to determine the status of the oil market.
Oil market. FOREX

For the market "spot", ie contracts for immediate delivery, particularly in Asia, used oil from Dubai. It is in this sort of oil and is determined by the value of contracts for the supply of other varieties.

Considerable confusion creates an American "standard" - Western Texas light crude, sometimes followed by an English name, referred to as "sweet". The terms "sweet" and "light" have no relation to the taste or difficulty of production - thus emphasizes that the content of sulfur impurities in it does not exceed 0,5% of weight.

This oil because of its qualities is more expensive, and Brent, and the Russian "yuralz.

Even more confusion has been compounded that the oil cartel OPEC has its own standard - the so-called "basket", which is proportional to production volume, consists of seven grades of oil, six of which are mined countries in the cartel, while the seventh - Mexico. It is this "basket" of OPEC and measures the market, setting price limits, or making statements about the price of oil.

So when is the price of oil, it is important to understand how oil and on what exchange. Otherwise, confusion was inevitable.

The way it oil?

Price per barrel in 60-70 dollars seems inordinately high. Indeed, in absolute terms this is twice higher than in 2001. However, in relative numbers, ie, adjusted for inflation, oil is now much cheaper than in 1970 or early 1980.

From August 1973 to January 1974, oil prices rose by 8.5 dollars, which meant that prices for 274% in six months.

Major reasons for the growth somewhat, although opinions about which of them - defines diverge.

Why so expensive?

The growth in demand for oil is at the highest level over the past quarter century. It grows in the U.S., feeding on the rapid economic recovery from the stagnation of the early XXI century.

The growth in oil demand in China grows at 20% per year. Contracts have been issued under the assumption that the economy of China will continue to grow.

Increasing global trade also leads to increased demand for fuel.

On the supply side, major changes did not happen - new commercially viable deposits yet. Given that production volumes are growing faster than consumption, the situation has not changed.

OPEC countries producing oil on the limit of its capabilities. The same applies to Russia. However, increasing the supply of oil these countries are not corrects the situation, as they supply oil to the market average or poor quality, and the market needs to be "easy" oil to meet the growing demand for high quality gasoline.

Western countries have asked OPEC to produce more, but the cartel said that the root of the problem is not lack of oil on the market and a shortage of refining capacity.

Who is to blame for high prices?

Increase refining capacity lags behind in the times of production growth and demand. Refinery, trying to satisfy the demand for high quality gasoline and jet fuel, competing with each other for the supply of high quality oil than raise her prices.

If refining capacity was more, many companies could afford to buy less quality oil than a few chilled to the entire market.

In addition, the market is nervous, fearing the supply disruption caused by political turmoil and natural disasters.

Iraq can not reach the planned production volumes. Strikes in Nigeria or Venezuela, not to mention the devastating hurricanes, immediately bid up prices, which then did not want to fall.

Some analysts call all this speculation, pointing out that over the past years, the oil market went bullish investment banks and funds, for which the oil - a commodity like bonds or shares.

To bad on the road of oil?

From high oil prices suffer, especially the consumer.

Drivers in Europe, this feeling is not as acute as in the U.S. or Russia, because the share of taxes in the price of gasoline in the Old World are much higher.

Even those who have no car, feel it - the price of any product on the shelf based on the price of its transportation, which means - and oil.

Airline passengers to feel discomfort as early as 2004, when many companies have introduced a special "fuel" surcharge to the ticket.

What is the "Dutch disease"?

High oil prices require financial authorities of the emergency professionalism and care.

In oil-importing countries, higher prices for it has skewed the balance of trade, which in turn can be expressed in the currency depreciation and inflation.

In the countries exporting oil, for example,  in Russia, it could result in an excessive inflow of foreign currency.

This, in turn, becomes the cause of strengthening the national currency, which hurts the local companies, and leads to the fact that all investments are only in the oil industry (the so-called "Dutch disease").

In extreme cases, the inflow into the economy "bad" money leads to increased corruption and an inability to resist the temptations of various costly political ventures.

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